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Archive for October, 2008

Geek Alert!!

As your Monday public service announcement I am letting you know that you can relax. Your geekiness level will never be as high as mine so you can live your life in happiness and contentment knowing there is someone out there helping to balance out the ethereal geekness of the world. “How’s that?” you ask.

I give you…. my undead warlock!!!

Marty and I enjoy playing board games. This is not inherently geeky in itself.  However. Playing a board game based on a role-playing video game? Decidedly, uber-geek…and I am totally okay with that.

The Drool Monster Cometh…

So I put Greyson on the floor after his nap today and he promptly crawled over and grabbed a hairbrush to suck on. He isn’t totally “crawling” yet but he has that fast, ‘Get your butt under that barbed-wire SOLDIER!!!’ army crawl.

He is now mobile enough that his brothers have moved in to full defensive mode when it comes to their Hotwheels cars…

They attempted to both distract and barricade Greyson in with a huge pile of his toys.

This will be getting interesting.

New pictures!!

Pictures are up for September and October! This is Greyson’s current “face”. He makes it all the time. He is also spending a lot of time with his tongue sticking out. I am not sure what that is about.

We had a fabulous day at the zoo with Uncle Jay, Anna, and Simon! There are some zoo day pics up as well.

I may be a slacker but….

I am not a hoser —

This poor guy. I read a news story about how he gets caught at a car wash having er…romantic..ah..intimate…um dang. He was having relations with a car wash vacuum. Now this is so sad, beyond the obvious fact that this guy is really desperate, it is so extremely nasty. I know what comes out of my own van. Nasty half chewed french fries, soggy goldfish crackers, lint covered gummy things… I hope it was worth it for him. I guess people are having to be thrifty about everything these days…

After a couple weeks of economic doldrums I think some giggles are allowed.

I fell in to a burning ring of fire and other global market chaos…

…but why? Why are problems with the US market affecting the global market to the extreme that they are?

Before I start I have to thank NPR and This American Life for all of the great information they have put out. It has made this whole mess a lot easier to understand if not a lot scarier since I now know whats going on…

Today let’s learn about the biggest piece of this financial puzzle and the most damaging one — credit default swaps. WHACK! wake up people…it’s not that bad…

I invest, buy a bond say, in Widget Company. To protect myself in the event they go bankrupt I call up another company, say AIG insurance, and buy insurance on my bond. I pay AIG x dollars every month and they agree that if Widget Co takes a dive, AIG will pay me the price of my bond. I have entered into a credit default swap with AIG. Woohoo! Just like fire insurance on my house. Sort of…

See the CDS market is unregulated. Meaning no one is keeping an eye on whats going on. So, while credit default swaps were initially set up as a way to reduce risk, they have been twisted a bit. They became an instrument of speculation, betting on the market. For example, I bought insurance so that if Widget Co fails I am covered. But let’s say Widget Co isn’t able to get their latest product out on time, their CEO leaves, and their stock starts to fall. AIG starts getting calls from other people interested in buying insurance against Widget Co. The thing is..none of those people actually have an investment with Widget. They aren’t interested in protecting their bonds, they don’t have any, they just are betting that Widget Co craps out and they want money when it does. So while I have a bond with Widget Co, there may be ten other people who have also taken out insurance on my bond.

With me so far? The other thing about credit default swaps is that they aren’t publicly traded. Usually it’s only big investment funds, banks and corporations who can afford to make these deals with each other. The scary thing comes when you look at the numbers. From what I have seen, as of September 2008, there were $5 to 10 trillion in bonds floating around in the world but the total amount of credit default swap contracts is around $60 trillion dollars. Wha huh? Yes, so for every bond issued there are at least ten people promising to pay for that bond if it goes bad.

With so much money floating around you would think that someone would be keeping an eye on things but no. In the mid-90’s Congress briefly looked at the issue before shelving it. In 2002, mega-bazillionaire Warren Buffet talked about CDSs being “financial weapons of mass destruction” and as recently as March of this year TIME mag had an article,”Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?”.

So why the popularity of credit default swaps? Leverage… Leverage is one of those terms that is best defined with vague hand waving. When it’s good, it’s good and when it’s bad it is baaaaaad and in this market it has become evil.

I offer this tid bit on leverage from my new best friend www.investopedia.com

” The use of various financial instruments or borrowed capital, such as margin, to increase the potential return of an investment.
Leverage helps both the investor and the firm to invest or operate. However, it comes with greater risk. If an investor uses leverage to make an investment and the investment moves against the investor, his or her loss is much greater than it would’ve been if the investment had not been leveraged – leverage magnifies both gains and losses.”
 
 
 So this affects the world how…

Let’s say I run a investment fund with $100,000 in it. I throw it out there that I am looking to insure people’s bonds. I get a call from someone who has $1,000,000 bond with the First National Bank of Widget.  “I will insure your bond and you pay me $20,000 a year,” I say. “Great, “they say. Sweet! We are in business. In five years we will have doubled our money. We are getting the money for a 1 million dollar investment even though we only have $100,000. Good leverage, nice leverage…such a good boy….  

The downside of this of course is that I don’t have 1 million dollars should First National Bank of Widget go bankrupt. The idea that any of the largest, most established banks in the world would actually shut down seemed impossible to imagine so people felt totally safe doing this.

That is until Lehman Bros, one of the world’s largest and most established banks, crashed and burned. A few other banks defaulted, not too mention all of the toxic mortgage backed securities (MBSs) that had been insured using credit default swaps. Oh yeah.. it’s a big mess. In one fell swoop all those credit default swap contracts started coming due. AIG, the world largest insurer, found itself staring at over 400 billion dollars in credit default swap contracts. $400 billion the company did not have. The government stepped in but the damage was done.

Yes, but it affects the world how…

Okay, okay. It’s like this —

Again I run a investment fund with $100,000 in it. Except this time, I think that with all the problems it has been having Widget Company is on its way out. I call up AIG and say I will pay you $20,000 a year to buy a 1 million dollar credit default swap. So if Widget Company crashes, AIG pays me $1 million.

Now Widget Co starts to have more problems. There is a strike at the plant, bad rumors circulating on the Internet etc and as a result, the company becomes more expensive to insure. This makes sense. Like insuring your house on a flood plain during a series of rainstorms.

 So now we are sneaky. We turn around and sell our credit default swap contracts for $40,000 a year. Since the company is looking bad, people pay the higher premium to cover their own investments.

So lets review. We have $20,000 going out to AIG, $40,000 coming in from nervous investors and we are golden. $20,000 net profit an we are totally safe, we are hedged. (Ah…that word again. That’s like three days in a row…) This is how it usually works in the marketplace. A going out transaction matched with a coming in transaction. Investment funds buying from banks who sell to other banks who buy from other investment funds or banks and so on and so forth. In theory this makes things safer, secure, everything is covered.

But what if the chain breaks? If one link in the chain has an issue, then everyone has an issue. The problem is that a bank in the US has no idea what a bank in Ireland is doing, or a bank in China, yet everything is linked through this chain of borrowing and lending. Credit default swaps, being unregulated, are a great unknown. They take place privately and between parties that have no idea about each other. You really don’t know if the company you are being insured by has the money to pay you back.  Is the company you are giving money to as healthy as they say? or one step away from financial death?

This uncertainty is causing the global freeze of lending and results in the plummeting of stock markets everywhere. While there are differing versions of capitalism in various countries ours is probably the least regulated, the most lassiez faire (hands off). While our government has always touted this as the best form of capitalism we are now seeing its ugly side. This is making us even less popular than we already were in the world.

What can be done?

Damned if I know people. But the president of France has proposed a complete shut down of the world’s markets to get everyone on the same page and figure out what the new rules will be. Whatever happens it better be quick and it will have to be global. Things are just too far gone now for band aids. Stay tuned….

the more you know… doo doo doo dooooo

Yeah. You remember those after school commercials. But seriously, stay informed!

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/   NPR has a new blog and podcast. Planet Money. Excellent resources for all of this crazy stuff going down.

While I am at it. A word on voting. People should vote but make an INFORMED vote. Actually read the voter pamphlet, its all there. Recycle all of that glossy, this candidate is better then that candidate mail.

Don’t get sucked into the hype. Don’t vote for gender, don’t vote for race, don’t vote for spite (except when its against Tim Eyman. That guy drives me nuts.) Don’t vote for Big Bird (unless he is the most qualified)

Thank you… I put my soap box back in the closet 🙂

SELL, SELL, SELL!!!

So about the bailout and why the markets are going nuts….

(Disclaimer — I am not an economist. I just read a lot.)

As we talked about yesterday, investors swimming in toxic debt, banks holding on to their money and the financial system as we know it grinding to a halt.

To help keep the wheels of commerce nice and lubed the government has thrown together a “bailout package”. What does this mean…

Basically, the government is pledging that $700 billion dollars will be available to buy those little packages of mortgage backed securities (MBSs) from banks who need the help. This number is a guesstimate and could be too low or even too high.

DING-DONG

“Hello?”

“Hello Mr./Mrs. American. Here is your package.”

“But I didn’t order anything.”

“No it’s okay. Your Uncle Sam paid for it. ”

“Oh, well. It is some nice shiny paper and look at that bow!”

“Have a nice day!” 

“Uh, thanks..but Oh wait..this is dripping. I think there has been a mistake.”

“No mistake, bye bye now!” SLAM

So the theory that the gov is working on is that by purchasing bad debt from the banks they are putting money into the system and freeing up banks to start loaning to one another again. As to the fact that we the taxpayers now basically own $700 billion dollars worth of poo is another matter and the one that got most people riled up about this particular action. The gov is hoping that after the financial market settles down and the housing markets stabilizes they can unload all of those MBSs. Regifting to some other poor sod.

Another option floating around is called a stock-injection plan. This is similiar to what the gov did to bail out Fannie Mae. It works like this. The gov buys up the nasty debt of a company and in return gets stock shares in that company. Say $100 million dollars worth or whatever. This stock is granted senior-preferred status. This means that if the company tanks, after all is said and done, the gov gets paid back first for its shares before any other stock holder gets a piece. Banks get monies and the taxpayer gets stock. There is major opposition to his plan since it smacks of government ownership. Some consider it one step closer to socialism and government run everything. Interestingly though, I have seen rumours that this plan did in fact make it into the bailout bill that was signed into law and could be used as an option in some cases. 

I for one don’t mind actually getting something if I am going to be throwing a bunch of money out there. But then again, looking at what a dandy job the gov has done running things so far, we might not want it involved anymore then it has to be. As to whether the bailout will actually work we have to wait and see.

So the bailout thing is a go right? Why the stock market conniptions?

Couple of things here. The stock market does not like uncertainty. Lord knows we have had enough of that to go around. The bottom fell out of the housing industry and created a bit of panic. Not knowing if the money is going to be there is giving quite a few people some serious ulcers. The initial dive of the markets was a bit of a knee jerk panic however, some fundamental stock market practices have helped fuel the fire a bit. Let’s see how this works.

Number One —

I have a company, you want some stock so you buy it. Stock prices go up so you sell the stock and make some money. Easy. Now here is the fun part.

Hedging, which we talked about yesterday. This is basically a type of insurance against the up and downs of the market. You are buying a stock to protect yourself from the volitality associated with another stock. I refer you to this article which can explain it better www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/080103.asp

People have been selling off stocks to cover lots of hedge investments. They aren’t sure if the money is still going to be there when they need it further down the road. Remember they are essentially using the money from one stock to purchase another so if they don’t get the money they expect for that first stock they are really in trouble.

Also the term short-selling has been floating around. Short-selling is where I think a Company G’s stock is going to drop so I ‘borrow’ 500 shares from someone who owns them promising them that I will return them later. Seriously 🙂 I sell the shares right away and when the prices of G do indeed drop I buy back 500 shares at a cheaper rate and return them to the person I borrowed them from. I make money on the difference between the price I sold the stock at and what it cost me to buy it back. I just hope that the price of the stock doesn’t go up or I am screw-ed.  Naked short-selling is where I do the same thing but I don’t actually borrow the shares from anyone. Say what? Yes, messed up!

Why is this bad? Short-selling is very tricky to get right in the best of markets and has a tendency to compound the problems of falling markets. You make money when a stock is dropping so short-selling a stock just helps promote the downward spiral of stocks.

So in September, the SEC (the Security and Exchange Commission — responsible for governing the sale and purchase of stocks) put a temporary ban on short-selling certain company’s stocks, mostly bank type companies, to help stabilize the market. Some argue this removes money from the system but others say it helps keep stocks from being lowered even more due to speculation that a company may fail.

Number Two —

The Federal Reserve is the central bank for the US. It is where the government has its checking account and it is also responsible for the smooth running of the nations banks. The primary role of the Fed Reserve is to help stem financial meltdown. In this case, the initial responses of the Fed Res where a bit erratic. They bailed out Bear Sterns and then let Lehman Brothers suck it up. The markets saw this as even more uncertainty and continued to distabilize.

The Fed Res also controls the interest rate and today we hear there has been another rate cut. What does this mean? The rate you hear about, the 1.5%, is the rate at which banks charge each other interest on the money the loan to each other. Also some loans and credit cards base their rates on this value. So in cutting it, the fed is hoping to get some monies floating around the economy.

Number Three —

Two weeks ago, most of the chaos was restrained to the banks and companies directly involved with motgage backed securities. Then the commercial paper market imploded. The commercial paper market is probably the most important thing you have never heard about. This is how it works.

Everyday the treasurers of companies, big and small, head to work and find out how much money they have for the day. Have they been paid for all their services? Do they have to buy new euipment? Do they need to restock the shelves? If they find themselves short of money, instead of whipping out the credit card, they jump on the phone to their broker. They use the commercial paper market. The broker loans them $9,000 today and tomorrow the company pays them back $10,000. This happens everyday with every company….billions of dollars floating around EVERYDAY.

The commercial paper market gets its money from money market mutual funds. Just like the ones that you and I might have at the bank. Money market savings accounts. They offer little return but the point is that your money is safe. You put a dollar in and you may get a dollar and one cent out, but at least you get your dollar out. Up until two weeks ago. See that’s when a money market fund only gave $.97 back for each dollar and people freaked. Money markets are the safest place to put your money. They only invest in safe, reliable things like commercial paper not that crazy toxic mortgage mess. But here’s the rub. The money market fund in question lent money to Lehman Marcus and because Lehman had crashed and burned the day before, it took the money market with it. It “broke the buck” as they say… the worst possible thing that could ever happen to a money market fund. The subprime mess had finally spilled over into the rest of the market and on to infect the world….THE WORLD …..BUAHAHAHA!  

So Lehman Brothers choked, then a few other banks, and AIG the worlds largest insurer decided to join the party. Another fund broke the buck and money market fund managers seized up and literally stopped giving out money. Instead they began stashing it in treasury bills and bonds. Basically, investing with the government believing that to be the only safe place to be.

 Now we find ourselves two weeks later and in a very difficult spot. If banks and companies, who relie on commercial paper everyday to run their businesses, continue to not get funds things get very prickly.

So yesterday, the Fed Res announced the formation of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. This will offer a short term guarantee for the issuers of commercial paper credit. Whether this will calm down anything remains to be seen.

Basically, faith in the system has been shaken. The trust that you are lending to someone who is going to be able to pay you back is broken.

Will the bailout work?

The $700 billion question. Obviously, the markets need to get flowing again. Should we be throwing money at the people who made these really bad decisions in the first place? That’s the debate and even though the bailout is law it still must be applied in a fashion that will be productive. Hopefully, the people at the top can figure this one out.

I don’t see us having to form bread lines anytime soon but our market has taken a serious punch to the gut. It is a bit hard to have capitalism with out any capital.

Wha’ Happened?

Because I like to be informed, and I think you should be informed I want to tell you a story…

So the story goes like this —

Miss Sally wants to buy a house so she gets a mortgage with her friendly, local bank LaPu. She gets one of those trendy adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) because she can’t exactly afford the house if she had to do it the traditional way. So, Miss Sally moves in, buys a petunia and a new dinette set. All is peachy.

LaPu takes Miss Sally’s mortgage and throws it in a box with lots of other subprime (read — risky, more likely to default if loaned to) mortgages. The box is wrapped with pretty paper and even a bright red bow like you see in those car commercials at Christmas. “Oh, for me?” squeals the happy investor. “You shouldn’t have!” No really, they shouldn’t have. Banks take their mortgages and sell them to investors who not only buy the rights to the mortgage but also all of the debt risk connected to that mortgage. (These are called mortgage backed securities – MBSs) This is not a new thing, it started in the 70’s. The thing that finally bit us in the butt was the fact that banks relaxed their loaning requirements so much that all the boxes they were giving away were stuffed full of so called “toxic mortgages” just waiting to ooze their nastiness all over investors.

So what happened? As homeowners, like Miss Sally, find themselves unable to keep up with their mortgages there is less money being returned to the investors and business that hold MBSs and things start to get wonky. Panic starts to grow when there isn’t enough money flowing through the system.

Whew…deep breath now.

But this is only part of the story. Miss Sally and LaPu aren’t the only issues here. Lots of stuff kind of snowballed. Homeowners taking out second mortgages, lines of credit, and racking up huge credit debt hasn’t helped. Neither have home builders flooding the market with a ton of unsellable inventory.

Speculation on the stock market has caused real problems. Yes, this stuff is legal to do although it sounds really fishy….

— borrowing money intending to repay that money with money you get from selling other investments… called hedging. Great as long as your other investments don’t crap out.

— the “Ponzi borrower” who uses the increasing value of assets, for instance real estate, to pay off their current debt but can’t ever really afford to pay off their original loan.

— and the one that has probably cause the most damage “speculative” borrowing where money is borrowed knowing that only interest can be paid off and the principal of the loan is used to finance another investment. Think house flipping here.

The government has helped out a bit too with deregulation of the banking industry. This just means that the government reduced or, in some cases, eliminated the rules and regulations imposed on banks. This allows them to run as private companies with the hope that they will prosper and not run themselves into the ground. Er…ah…..hmmmm

The biggest brouhaha came about with the whole Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thing. Who’s a whats it?  The Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) were created by Congress in 1938 (Mae) and the 1970’s(Mac) to get government backed loans out to people and stabilize the mortgage market. They were known as a government sponsored enterprise. Eventually, they were privatized meaning they would now have stock holders and some guy running the company instead of the government.

In the mid-90’s, the government and shareholders encouraged Mae and Mac to purchase risky MBSs. They even said “Hey, you buy these loans and we will even let you count them as credits toward the affordable housing goal you need to meet”. To which Mae and Mac said “WooHoo, yes please..” In 2000, the government put anti-predatory rules into place that no longer allowed high risk loans to be counted towards the housing goals. However, in 2004 these laws were repealed and the purchase of high risk loans rocketed.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now jointly own over 80% of the mortgages issued this year and a craaaazy $5 TRILLION in subprime debt. The government recently stepped in to take over the companies and guarantee the debt adding to the worries that our financial system may not be able to deal with everything.

Throw in a little mortgage fraud, a little ignorance, a lack of oversight, a lot of greed and you have a huge pile of steaming poo just waiting to be stepped in. And so they did…

As the housing bubble burst all of the securities backed by these mortgages were worth nada, zilch… Companies that had banked on riding the housing market a little longer were caught between a rock and a hard place and thus you hear about all of these companies writing off bad debt. Yeah, they just write it off. Hmmm.. Note to self, we will no longer be able to collect that $500 million we are owed so “POOF”, and a waving of hands, IT IS NOW WRITTEN-OFF!  

And this, my friends, is how it affects you…

See, when there is no money coming into a bank, this makes other banks nervous about lending money to that bank. Since pretty much every major bank has some sort of billion dollar write-off on their books they are pretty much all sitting on their hands.

Banks stop lending to each other…

No money is flowing to lend to people and businesses and it gets really difficult for anyone to borrow…

No lines of credit for stores means no way to stock their shelves and pay employees. States can’t borrow money to fund infrastructure projects, construction slows down…

People are out of work, businesses shut down…

Fire and brimstone rain down on the earth, giant radioactive creatures rise from the depths and devour the forsaken!!! Okay, not really, but that would make things even more interesting…

The cycle continues, people have no money to spend, stores close, workers are laid off, and more people have even less money to spend.

This has happened in every recession but the system can usually right itself. The danger is that our system may be too far gone to be able to correct.   

Investors get worried, people who have money in the bank get worried, and things start to crash. Bear Sterns, Indy Mac, Lehman Brothers, WaMu, and plenty more to follow. Granted the FDIC can cover up to $100,000 and while that will barely cover my savings, ha ha ha ha, lots of people have still taken to stuffing their mattresses. This is bad as it takes even more money out of circulation. While I would probably take out any monies I had over that $100,000 mark if things look to head south, your average bank account holder is not going to have a problem if their bank goes under. I should know…due to WaMu suckage I am now a member of the JP Morgan Chase family. “But the FDIC can’t cover everything,” you say. Which is true, and if it gets to that point we have much, much bigger issuses.

Thus the $700 billion dollar bailout plan. But I have to go do laundry so I will get to that one later….

Chugga Chugga Woo… Whew…

So I am trying to knock things off my list of things to do. Okay..honestly, my list of “projects that it has been over a year and they are still laying around”. I am happy to announce the completion of one such project…the boys’ train wall.

I am happy it is finally done, the boys are happy they have wheels on their engine, and Marty is happy I was able to talk Ben out of having pink box cars on his train. (Ben’s favorite color continuing to be pink)

I have already figured out what to do for Greyson’s room. Definitely will not be as extravagant but it should be very cool. Whenever I can find the time to get it started…and eventually finished!  🙂

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